Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 7.627042e-05 0.000091 0.000106 0.000124 0.000144 0.000165 0.000189
2025-02-23 5.720795e-05 0.000076 0.000097 0.000123 0.000154 0.000188 0.000229
2025-03-02 4.530722e-05 0.000065 0.000089 0.000120 0.000157 0.000200 0.000252
2025-03-09 3.636239e-05 0.000057 0.000083 0.000117 0.000161 0.000212 0.000278
2025-03-16 3.068736e-05 0.000052 0.000079 0.000117 0.000166 0.000226 0.000303
2025-03-23 2.624829e-05 0.000047 0.000077 0.000118 0.000173 0.000241 0.000330
2025-03-30 2.211284e-05 0.000043 0.000073 0.000117 0.000177 0.000252 0.000352
2025-04-06 1.809714e-05 0.000038 0.000069 0.000114 0.000178 0.000259 0.000369
2025-04-13 1.622206e-05 0.000037 0.000068 0.000117 0.000186 0.000276 0.000398
2025-04-20 1.294374e-05 0.000032 0.000063 0.000113 0.000185 0.000279 0.000410
2025-04-27 1.095823e-05 0.000029 0.000061 0.000112 0.000188 0.000289 0.000430
2025-05-04 9.265503e-06 0.000027 0.000059 0.000112 0.000191 0.000299 0.000450
2025-05-11 8.447930e-06 0.000026 0.000060 0.000116 0.000202 0.000321 0.000488
2025-05-18 7.119867e-06 0.000025 0.000058 0.000117 0.000208 0.000335 0.000516
2025-05-25 5.371630e-06 0.000021 0.000054 0.000113 0.000206 0.000338 0.000529
2025-06-01 4.254336e-06 0.000019 0.000051 0.000111 0.000208 0.000347 0.000549
2025-06-08 3.438373e-06 0.000017 0.000049 0.000111 0.000211 0.000358 0.000572
2025-06-15 2.872464e-06 0.000016 0.000048 0.000112 0.000217 0.000372 0.000601
2025-06-22 2.241730e-06 0.000015 0.000046 0.000111 0.000219 0.000381 0.000622
2025-06-29 1.640083e-06 0.000013 0.000044 0.000108 0.000219 0.000386 0.000637
2025-07-06 1.414990e-06 0.000013 0.000044 0.000111 0.000227 0.000404 0.000671
2025-07-13 9.420715e-07 0.000011 0.000041 0.000106 0.000224 0.000404 0.000680
2025-07-20 6.960876e-07 0.000010 0.000039 0.000106 0.000227 0.000414 0.000702